The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to grow the economy but also lead to the unequal distribution of wealth, with income shifting toward capital owners rather than labor, according to a recent report.
AI firm Anthropic warned that AI would boost the American economy by 32% and create massive prosperity by 2030, but it would also widen the income gap.
The firm’s economics team praised AI’s massive potential to drive economic growth to unprecedented levels while advising that it would also lead to historic job losses for white-collar workers.
The report outlines three key scenarios for the US economy based on the pace of AI development, adoption rates and task-based automation capabilities.
An extreme scenario shows that virtually all jobs are performed autonomously, leading US annual gross domestic product (GDP) to grow as much as 15%, causing the economy to double around every five years.
US GDP is projected to rise as much as 32.4% compared with previous projections without considering AI, reaching $44.4 trillion. This radical scenario foresees AI outperforming humans in most white-collar tasks, such as those of engineers, software developers and accountants.
The same scenario also warns that the overall unemployment rate would rise to a whopping 12%, exceeding a typical level in a recession.
White-collar employment would decline more than 20%, and wages for the group would fall more than 10%. Meanwhile, income distribution would fall to 45.2% for labor, while the share of capital would rise by 14.8 points to 54.8%.
Under the current economic system, this share is divided 60% to labor and 40% to capital.
Even if the economy grew by one-third, the total wages paid to workers still would not exceed the level seen in a potential world where AI does not exist, the report showed.
The economic gains derived from AI would mostly be in the hands of capital owners who already have the AI models, data and computing resources, the model revealed.
Meanwhile, wage increases may be seen in occupational groups less affected by AI, such as technical trades, electricians or nursing, as these rely on physical strength and interpersonal skills, potentially becoming more valuable.
At the same time, a more moderate scenario in which AI plays a less prominent role showed a more controlled market movement.
This projection expects AI to take on only 4% of tasks across the US economy, with the country’s GDP anticipated to rise 1.6% compared with a scenario without AI, totaling $34.1 trillion. Employment and unemployment in this projection remain within historical norms, while AI has a gradual impact on markets like the global rollout of the internet.
Under a more pronounced, medium-term scenario in which AI takes over around half of white-collar tasks, US GDP is expected to rise 8.3% above the baseline scenario to $36.3 trillion, while unemployment approaches 4.6%-5%, white-collar employment declines around 4% and white-collar wages stagnate.
The report authors say these scenarios are not definitive, as their model excludes external macroeconomic factors like economic crises, market shocks, government policies, disruptive AI failure modes or other advancements in robotics that could automate manual labor.
The report surveyed around 11,000 US adults, showing that the public’s median expectations generally align with the more pronounced medium-term scenario.
Anthropic economist Peter McCrory said the goal is to ensure that institutions and governments can make strategic decisions against potential future risks.
Meanwhile, billionaire Elon Musk said the extreme scenario outlined in the report, forecasting 15% annual growth once humanoid robots enter mass production, will happen.
He said AI will likely grow the global economy by up to 30% given the current productivity gains. ( Curtsey : Anadolu News Agency)
