By Sukhrob Buronov
From May 19 to 21, 2025, the Termez Dialogue on Regional Connectivity between Central and South Asia is scheduled to be held under the theme: “Building a Common Space of Peace, Friendship, and Prosperity”.
The main goal of the Termez Dialogue is to strengthen connectivity between the regions of Central and South Asia. This format is aimed at discussing pressing issues such as enhancing cooperation between Central and South Asia in ensuring security, stability, and sustainable development; expanding the role of the private sector and financial institutions in deepening interregional connectivity; and promoting economic growth.
Amid the ongoing crises in the modern international system, characterized by the rise of traditional and non-traditional threats to peace and security, the deepening of interregional ties, strengthening of interstate political trust, and development of joint cooperation to counter common challenges are tasks equally relevant for all countries of the two regions. Therefore, the Termez Dialogue takes on special significance and relevance for both Central and South Asia.
The great philosopher and historian Ibn Khaldun once said: “Geography is destiny.” Centuries have passed, yet these words have not lost their meaning or relevance. By the will of history and due to its geographic location, Uzbekistan finds itself landlocked, with no direct access to global sea routes. It is evident that the nearest maritime routes pass through its southern neighbor – Afghanistan, which has long been plagued by war and conflict.
In the era of our great ancestor Zahiriddin Babur and his descendants, 13 trade caravans used to travel along southern routes. The restoration of historical ties with South Asia, the development of trade and economic cooperation, and the creation of new transport corridors are among the priority areas of Uzbekistan’s modern foreign policy strategy.
As President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev noted: “Today, the world is entering an era of global geopolitical transformation, bringing both challenges and new opportunities. In this context, the revival of mutual ties between Central and South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, is becoming an increasingly necessary and objective process. I believe the time has come for us – drawing on the immense historical, scientific, and spiritual-cultural heritage of our peoples, the complementarity of our economies, and the presence of intellectual potential – to consolidate our joint efforts, which will undoubtedly create a powerful synergistic effect. We understand that connectivity, cooperation, dialogue, and most importantly – trust – are the driving forces for ensuring stability and sustainable development, improving the quality of life, and enhancing the well-being of the peoples of our regions. This approach is the call of our time.”
Afghanistan serves as a regional transport bridge, connecting Central Asia with South Asia, the Middle East, and the Far East. The nearest seaports to Central Asia run precisely through Afghan territory. In this context, the launch of the Trans-Afghan Transport Corridor holds strategic importance for Uzbekistan. Access to seaports through Afghanistan is 2-3 times shorter than through Black Sea and Baltic ports and 5 times shorter than through routes to Pacific ports.
According to analytical data, 60% of Uzbekistan’s international transport passes through transit routes across Central Asia and Afghanistan. In terms of transit route shares: 69% pass through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, 21% through Tajikistan, 6% through Kyrgyzstan, and 4% through Afghanistan. In the future, Uzbekistan is capable of creating favorable conditions and opportunities for Central Asian countries to access international markets through Afghanistan. In this regard, the opening of the international Trans-Afghan Corridor will serve as a foundation for expanding interregional trade dialogue. In particular, Uzbekistan will gain access to global markets through the ports of Iran, Pakistan, and India, unlocking new opportunities to realize the region’s vast transit potential.
To date, Uzbekistan has provided significant support to Afghanistan’s economic recovery.
Uzbekistan has gone down in history as the country that built the first railway in Afghanistan – the “Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif” line, commissioned in 2010. This railway was completed ahead of schedule – in just 11 months. Since its launch, over 20 million tons of cargo have been transported via this route, including about 5.5 million tons of exports from Uzbekistan.
According to the Asian Development Bank, construction of this railway created 1,200 permanent jobs in Afghanistan, employment in the project regions increased by more than 10%, and over 7 million people gained access to rail transport. Additionally, cargo delivery time was halved, and trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan increased from $520 million in 2008 to over $1 billion in 2012. During the same period, Afghanistan’s total foreign trade grew from $3.5 billion to $6.8 billion.
Experts estimate that Hairatan is Afghanistan’s primary land and river port, handling about 50% of the country’s imports. Today, this railway remains the main route connecting Uzbekistan with Afghanistan and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian goods. In this context, the city of Termez holds special importance.
One of the key topics to be discussed at the Termez Dialogue is the deepening of cooperation on the implementation of the railway project “Termez – Mazar-i-Sharif – Kabul – Peshawar” (the Kabul Corridor), which continues the “Hairatan–Mazar-i-Sharif” line and is seen as one of the flagship projects of the Trans-Afghan Transport Corridor.
A route for the Kabul Corridor railway has already been mapped: “Termez – Naibabad – Logar – Kharlachi”, and a “roadmap” for coordinating the project between Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan has been developed. Experts describe this railway as the “project of the century” and a “gateway” to South Asia’s maritime routes. Indeed, successful implementation of this project would offer opportunities of historical magnitude.
However, it is no secret that the project faces several obstacles. As of 2024, trade turnover between the two regions barely exceeds $5 billion. Clearly, this figure does not reflect the full potential and real possibilities of the two regions. In this regard, it is important to emphasize the following aspects of the Kabul Corridor’s significance:
First, the corridor will contribute to solving a range of socio-economic issues and help eliminate the social roots of destructive phenomena such as terrorism and drug trafficking. A closer look at the project reveals that it not only connects major cities and provinces of Afghanistan but also provides a strong impetus for developing the country’s production and industrial infrastructure, which is currently in decline. The project will help reduce unemployment (by creating up to 500,000 jobs), fight poverty, and address the energy deficit. Moreover, the construction of the “Mazar-i-Sharif – Torkham” highway will accelerate completion of the “Kabul Ring Road” project.
Second, this railway will play a vital role not only in the development of regional but also international economic and political relations. According to experts, the Kabul Corridor will promote increased trade, exports, and imports between Europe, Central Asia, Pakistan, India, and Southeast Asia. In the face of a slowing global economy, this project will become not only a catalyst for regional development but also a new source of global economic growth.
Third, the project will connect all Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states via Afghan territory. Geographically, this will enable Russia and Central Asia to access Pakistani and Indian markets, while these countries will gain access to Central Asian, Russian, and European markets.
Fourth, the corridor will allow Uzbekistan to gain access to the nearest seaports. Commissioning this railway will diversify trade and transport-logistics ties and help overcome the challenges of being landlocked.
It is evident that the Termez Dialogue will serve as a necessary platform to discuss and resolve the challenges hindering implementation of Trans-Afghan transport corridor projects aimed at South Asia. Holding the Termez Dialogue with the participation of political, economic, and business communities creates conditions for comprehensive discussions on trade-economic, investment, transport-logistics, and energy projects and facilitates their financing.
Today’s cooperation among Central Asian states, their policies of good-neighborliness, and – most importantly – the atmosphere of mutual trust can rightly serve as a model for other regions of the world. Indeed, the Termez Dialogue, initiated to revive historically established and once thriving political, trade-economic, and cultural-humanitarian ties with South Asia, aims not only to bring together two shared historical, cultural, and civilizational spaces but also to provide a powerful impetus for developing new approaches to ensuring stability and peaceful development in Afghanistan.
Moreover, amid growing geopolitical competition and armed conflicts in various parts of the world, holding the Termez Dialogue offers significant opportunities to develop responses to acute contemporary challenges – such as unpredictable security threats, economic crises, environmental risks, and the clash of civilizations – through preventive diplomacy and constructive dialogue.
Uzbekistan’s strategic approach to foreign policy lies precisely in restoring historical ties between the peoples of the two regions, strengthening interconnectivity, and enabling Central Asia to access new markets. This initiative not only fully aligns with the interests of all regional peoples but also makes a valuable contribution to implementing the UN General Assembly resolution “On Strengthening Connectivity between Central and South Asia”, adopted by the international community.
Overall, the regions of Central and South Asia stand on the brink of a historic turning point. The Termez Dialogue, as a platform that strengthens interregional connectivity, also opens up new prospects for restoring shared historical, cultural, and civilizational ties, as well as for developing international transport and logistics corridors through Afghanistan.
In an era of growing diplomatic and trust deficits, initiatives such as the Termez Dialogue are of exceptional importance and relevance. After all, the development of regions should be based not on conflict and rivalry, but on mutual understanding, dialogue, and close cooperation – this is a truth that needs no proof. (The author is: Associate Professor at Tashkent State University of Oriental Studies, PhD in Political Science)
