WNAM REPORT: Kazakhstan’s economy is forecast to grow by 5.7% this year before slowing to 4.5% in 2026, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) latest Regional Economic Prospects report released in September.
The bank highlighted reliance on Russian transit routes for oil exports and volatile global commodity prices as key downside risks.
Kazakhstan’s GDP grew 6.2% year-on-year in January-June, primarily driven by increased oil production at the Tengiz field.
Oil production increased by 11.6% in the first half of the year, while construction surged by 18.4%, supported by major infrastructure initiatives, utility network repairs and residential construction. Household consumption was boosted by strong consumer lending (up by 31% year on year as of August), despite accelerating inflation on the back of increasing food prices, continued fiscal stimulus and adjustments of utility tariffs.
Inflation reached 12.2% in August despite a tight monetary stance, with the policy rate at 16.5%. Fixed capital investment rose by 19.3% in the first half of the year. At the same time, the current account deficit more than doubled to $3.5 billion, reflecting lower oil prices and higher imports.
The tenge remained volatile amid weaker oil prices and reduced foreign direct investment following the completion of the Tengiz expansion. Looking ahead, new tax and budget codes effective from January 2026 are expected to strengthen fiscal discipline and reduce dependence on the National Fund.
Across Central Asia, growth accelerated to 6.6% in the first half of the year, up from 5.6% in 2024, reflecting strong domestic demand. The region’s growth is projected to moderate to 6.2% for the year and 5.2% in 2026.
