Ethiopia, with a population projected to reach 150 million by 2030, finds itself in a unique and untenable geopolitical position as the world’s most populous landlocked nation. Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed has correctly articulated Ethiopia’s desire for access to the Red Sea as an existential matter for the nation.
The Historical Perspective: A Legacy Denied
Ethiopia’s historical and cultural links to the Red Sea are not a matter of opinion; they are a matter of fact. The Aksumite Kingdom, which thrived from the 1st century CE, was a dominant global maritime power. Its ports, primarily Adulis and later Massawa, were the anchors of a vast trading network connecting Ethiopia to the Roman Empire, the Arabian Peninsula, and Asia. This history forms the bedrock of Ethiopia’s identity but Ethiopia’s landlocked status is a relatively recent and unnatural imposition.
The Economic Imperative: A Matter of Survival
Ethiopia’s economy has been characterized by sustained, rapid growth. However, this growth is stifled by its complete lack of direct sea access, forcing it to rely on neighboring ports this dependency is not just vulnerability; it is an immense financial burden, costing the nation an estimated $1.5 to $2 billion annually in port fees and logistics costs.
Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed has cited studies indicating that sea access can account for up to 25-30% of a country’s GDP. For a nation of 150 million, securing a sovereign or leased port is not a luxury it is the key to unlocking sustainable development, ensuring food security, and creating a prosperous future for its vast, youthful population.
A Proactive, Multi-Pronged Diplomatic Strategy
Ethiopia’s quest is not based on hope; it is now an active, multi-pronged diplomatic strategy rooted in the principles of peaceful negotiation and mutual benefit. Recent events demonstrate this clearly.
In a historic move in January 2024, Ethiopia translated its strategy into action by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. This landmark agreement paves the way for Ethiopia to gain long-term, reliable access to the sea, including a naval base. In return, Ethiopia is offering tangible economic stakes, such as shares in Ethiopian Airlines—a direct implementation of the mutually beneficial concessions the Prime Minister has proposed.
Ethiopia’s proactive diplomacy has also spurred new, positive opportunities with existing partners. In response to Ethiopia’s clearly stated needs, Djibouti proposed a significant enhancement to their partnership in September 2024, offering Ethiopia the chance to manage the Port of Tadjoura. This development underscores a key truth: Ethiopia’s quest for diversified access encourages healthy regional cooperation and creates more options for all.
Simultaneously, Ethiopia has maintained its consistent call for peaceful dialogue with its northern neighbor. In late 2025, the Prime Minister renewed a call for international mediation to find a durable, just solution with Eritrea, specifically regarding the historical port of Assab. This demonstrates an unwavering, open-door policy that prioritizes negotiation above all else.
Regional Stability through Cooperation
Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access is an opportunity to reconfigure regional relationships for the better. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s vision of joint utilization of the Red Sea is a call to foster peace and unity. This quest is not a zero-sum game. The region’s dynamics have understandably been complex, and this bold pursuit has been met with misunderstanding by some.
However, Ethiopia’s commitment to peace remains its guiding principle. This was clearly demonstrated by its constructive participation in the Ankara Declaration of December 2024, a successful effort to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue with Somalia. This act affirmed that Ethiopia’s strategy is one of discussion and regional integration, not confrontation.
An Inevitable and Just Future
Ethiopia’s quest for access to the Red Sea is rooted in undeniable historical rights, urgent economic imperatives, and a clear-eyed strategy for regional stability.
The nation’s growing population and economy makes this a matter of existential necessity. Recent diplomatic actions from the Somaliland MoU to the renewed calls for dialogue with Eritrea and new opportunities with Djibouti show a government actively and peacefully pursuing every available avenue.
Ultimately, Ethiopia’s aspiration is a critical component of its quest for economic prosperity. A stable, economically vibrant Ethiopia with secure access to the sea is not a threat to the Horn of Africa; it is the essential anchor for its future peace and prosperity. ( The author is: Chargé d’Affaires (ad interim) at Ethiopian Embassy, Islamabad)
(Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect WNAM’s’ point of view)
