WNAM REPORT: When Azerbaijan was chosen to host COP29, few expected Baku to leave a lasting mark on global climate politics. Critics called it a “temporary stop” before the real decisions in Brazil. Yet a year later, the conversation has shifted. COP29 in Baku not only delivered concrete outcomes, from launching the Loss and Damage Fund to shaping a global finance roadmap, but also elevated Azerbaijan’s credibility as a climate leader.
Now, as COP30 opens in Belém, the contrast could not be clearer: where Baku offered structure, ambition, and progress, Belém faces the challenge of living up to that legacy.
COP29 proved to be a pivotal moment for international climate diplomacy. It was in Baku that the Loss and Damage Fund officially began operational activities, finally turning years of negotiations into a working mechanism to support vulnerable nations already facing climate impacts.
Equally significant was the agreement on a new climate finance framework, with countries aligning behind the “Baku to Belém Roadmap”, an ambitious plan to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for developing nations. Azerbaijan’s presidency also steered consensus on enhancing transparency in national commitments, streamlining funding access for small and medium economies, and ensuring inclusivity in negotiations, particularly through the participation of youth, women, and civil society.
Beyond these institutional achievements, COP29 stood out for its scale and engagement. It drew over 80,000 participants, including dozens of heads of state, government representatives, global organizations, and business leaders. The event became a symbol of how smaller host nations can deliver not only organizational excellence but also substantive results that move global climate policy forward.
Baku’s unexpected weight
From the moment Azerbaijan was selected to host, doubts persisted that its presidency could shape meaningful outcomes. Instead, Baku exceeded expectations, converting procedural goals into operational progress. It wasn’t just a venue, it was a turning point.
The legacy of COP29 now extends beyond the final communiqués: it reshaped perceptions of Azerbaijan as an active participant in global climate governance rather than a passive observer. For a country still navigating energy transition and diversification, Baku 2024 became a demonstration of capacity, credibility, and cooperation.
At COP30 in Belém, the Speaker of the Milli Majlis, Sahiba Gafarova, addressed the thematic session on “Energy Transition”, reaffirming that Azerbaijan’s clean energy agenda did not end with COP29; it continues to expand. Gafarova emphasized that accelerating the shift to renewables is crucial not only for cutting emissions but also for driving sustainable growth. She recalled that under Azerbaijan’s COP29 presidency, energy transition had been one of the central priorities, leading to the organization of four High-Level Energy Transition Dialogues with the International Energy Agency and other partners. These efforts culminated in three landmark initiatives: the Global Energy Storage and Networks Pledge, the Green Energy Zones and Corridors Pledge, and the COP29 Hydrogen Declaration, all designed to advance innovation, technology transfer, and fair participation in the global energy transition.
Highlighting Azerbaijan’s national progress, Gafarova noted that the country’s renewable energy potential exceeds 135 GW on land and 157 GW offshore, with more than 2 GW in new green energy projects planned by 2027. She added that by 2030, about 40 percent of Azerbaijan’s total electricity generation is expected to come from renewables, a target that underscores the nation’s determination to build a low-carbon future. The Speaker also pointed to the creation of Green Energy Zones in the once-liberated territories as an example of sustainable reconstruction and regional transformation.
Chief Negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev, on the other hand, unveiled the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) — committing to a 40 % emissions reduction by 2035, fifteen years ahead of the original 2050 goal.
This move underscores a shift in both tone and policy. Azerbaijan is not merely maintaining its commitments but accelerating the momentum, signaling that its post-COP29 momentum is translating into tangible action. As Rafiyev put it, “NDC 3.0 is a testament to Azerbaijan’s firm commitment to climate action and a sustainable future.”
The new target integrates renewable expansion, industrial decarbonization, and regional cooperation on clean energy, particularly through green corridors linking the South Caucasus with Europe. It also aligns Azerbaijan’s domestic reforms with the broader COP29 finance framework, connecting ambition with implementation capacity.
Belém’s quiet stage
With COP30 in Belém (November 10-21, 2025), the tone appears markedly different. Reports suggest that many world leaders will not attend, and the agenda remains underdeveloped, with major discussions postponed and few policy breakthroughs anticipated.
This emptiness in the lead-up contrasts sharply with the intensity of Baku, where negotiations were substantive, the agenda full, and global attention focused. While Belém inherits the financial and structural groundwork laid in Azerbaijan, it faces the challenge of living up to that precedent.
Azerbaijan’s transition from COP29 host to proactive architect of global climate policy is telling. It reflects a broader foreign policy evolution combining diplomacy, environmental stewardship, and economic diversification.
By stepping forward with a more ambitious NDC and actively shaping global finance mechanisms, Azerbaijan demonstrates that influence in climate governance is not just about scale, but about leadership and timing. Its actions now resonate well beyond the South Caucasus, positioning it as a bridge between developed and developing countries, a pragmatic voice from the Global South that can build consensus where larger powers often falter.
From Baku’s unexpected success to Belém’s uncertain tone, the trajectory is clear: Azerbaijan’s COP29 has set a benchmark. It delivered operational breakthroughs, financial commitments, and a spirit of inclusion that many larger conferences had failed to achieve.
As COP30 unfolds, Azerbaijan’s actions, both through its NDC 3.0 and its continued diplomatic engagement, reaffirm that the country’s climate leadership was not a one-time performance. It was the beginning of a new chapter in how smaller nations can drive global outcomes.
The journey from Baku to Belém tells a larger story: true credibility is earned not simply by hosting global summits, but by turning ambitious promises into meaningful action. This was a recurring sentiment among participants at last year’s event, reflecting the growing expectations and scrutiny that come with each successive COP. Azerbaijan has demonstrated this, raising the bar for what future COPs can accomplish. As the world’s attention shifts to the next summit, the focus must remain on continuous progress and bold improvements, not dwelling on potential shortcomings, but on delivering real climate solutions.
