Forecast: Asian economy to grow by 4.5 pct in 2024

BOAO, Hainan: The Asian economy is expected to grow by around 4.5 percent in 2024, surpassing that of 2023, and continue to be the largest contributor to global economic growth, according to a report released Tuesday by the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), which convenes its 2024 conference in Boao, a resort town in southern China’s Hainan Province.
According to the forum’s Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Progress flagship report, despite facing various external economic challenges, the Asian economy will still maintain a relatively high growth rate, supported by relatively strong consumption and proactive fiscal policies.
The report forecasts that by region, the economic growth rate of East Asia is expected to be the same as that of 2023, at 4.3 percent; South Asia’s economic growth is anticipated to rise from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 5.8 percent, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing region in Asia. Meanwhile, Central Asia’s economic growth is likely to decelerate to 4.3 percent from 4.5 percent in 2023, while the economic growth in West Asia is expected to rise to 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent in 2023.
“In terms of purchasing power parity, Asia’s economic aggregate is expected to account for 49 percent of global GDP in 2024, marking a 0.5 percentage points increase from 2023,” the report said.
In terms of trade and investment, Asia is expected to reverse the downward trend in 2023, the report said, explaining that the accelerated development of digital trade, the recovery of tourism in Asia, the continuous advancements of economic and trade arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and the positive effects of the restructuring of Asian value chains and industrial chains on regional economic integration, are expected to gradually emerge and add new impetus to Asian trade and investment.
In terms of employment, the report said that due to the ongoing economic downturn, the global employment outlook for 2024 is not particularly optimistic, projecting relatively sluggish employment growth in 2024 in the populous regions of East and South Asia that may dampen Asia’s overall employment growth. “But the overall unemployment rate in Asia is expected to remain below the global level,” the report said.
In terms of income, the report said that income growth “remains under considerable pressure,” despite an increase in total weekly working hours of full-time jobs in most Asian regions. Given the wide variance in sectoral incomes, domestic income inequality within Asian economies could further exacerbate, it warned.
The report also forecast that overall, inflation pressure in most Asian economies is expected to ease further in 2024, noting that economies currently experiencing lower inflation are projected to witness an uptick.
With a founding purpose to promote economic integration in Asia, the mission of the BFA, is to pool positive energy for the development of Asia and the world. The BFA Annual Conference 2024 is taking place from March 26 to 29.