ISLAMABAD: WNAM REPORT: Pakistan’s power generation rose 8% year-over-year in August 2025, reaching 14,218 gigawatt-hours (GWh), compared to 13,179 GWh in the same month last year, according to data released by brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited on Thursday.
The growth in electricity generation was attributed to lower power tariffs, a regulatory shift pushing captive power consumers to the national grid, and a low base effect from August 2024, which marked the weakest generation for that month since 2017.
Month-on-month, generation increased by 1%.
Total generation in the first two months of fiscal year 2025–26 (2MFY26) stood at 28,341 GWh — largely flat compared to 28,059 GWh during the same period last year.
The adjusted fuel cost for August came in at PKR 7.51 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), exceeding the reference cost of PKR 7.31/kWh. As a result, power distribution companies (DISCOs) have requested a positive fuel cost adjustment (FCA) of PKR 0.19/kWh — the first such increase since April 2025. The FCA request reflects increased reliance on costlier imported fuels and lower output from cheaper sources such as hydropower and nuclear energy.
RLNG-based generation rose 4% year-over-year to 2,180 GWh, surpassing the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s (NEPRA) reference by 27%. Imported coal-based generation surged 67% to 1,138 GWh, coming in 101% above the August benchmark. Conversely, hydropower generation grew modestly by 3% year-over-year to 5,362 GWh but still fell 6% short of its reference level.
Overall, August power generation exceeded the monthly reference target of 13,989 GWh by 2%, resulting in a surplus of 229 GWh — a positive development for the national grid after several months of underperformance.
Outlook
Despite the August surplus, experts warn that power generation is likely to decline in September due to seasonal cooling and continued low water inflows affecting hydropower production. With hydropower output expected to remain constrained in the near term, reliance on expensive generation sources such as RLNG and imported coal is expected to continue.
NEPRA projects electricity demand to grow by 2.8% in fiscal year 2025–26 (FY26), potentially putting further upward pressure on generation costs and FCAs.
