WNAM REPORT: Kazakhstan is seeking to diversify its oil export routes as global energy markets undergo shifts.
According to the Energy Ministry, Kazakhstan produced 87.7 million tons of crude oil in 2024, of which 68.6 million tons were exported.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline remained the dominant route, carrying 54.9 million tons or 80% of export volumes. Other routes included the Atyrau–Samara pipeline, with 8.8 million tons, the Atasu–Alashankou line to China, carrying 1.2 million tons, shipments through the Aktau seaport totaling 3.6 million tons, and rail transport of approximately 50,000 tons.
Kazakhstan aims to lift oil exports to 70.5 million tons this year, with Italy, the Netherlands, France, Romania, Greece, and China among its top buyers.
The heavy reliance on the CPC pipeline underscores the country’s vulnerability and the urgency of securing alternative routes.
Expansion of the Trans-Caspian route
Kazakhstan has been promoting the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which involves sending crude oil across the Caspian Sea and into the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan(BTC) pipeline, which reaches the Mediterranean Sea and bypasses the Black Sea, for delivery to the European market.
In 2022, KazMunayGas and SOCAR signed a five-year transit deal to move 1.5 million tons of crude annually along the route.
In 2024, BTC carried 1.4 million tons of Kazakhstan’s oil, with plans to increase volumes to 1.7 million tons in 2025. Between January and April 2025, oil shipments totaled 489,000 tons. Since January, in addition to Tengiz crude, test exports of Kashagon oil have also begun via the BTC pipeline to the Mediterranean. The exporter is KMG Kashagan B.V.
The long-term ambition is to raise shipments to as much as 20 million tons annually.
To boost capacity, the Energy Ministry and KazMunayGas have set up a joint working group with Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Eni, Total, CNPC, and Inpex to assess long-term infrastructure upgrades.
“Proposals include construction of the Eskene–Kuryk/Aktau pipeline, a potential subsea pipeline across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and new terminals and connectors to the BTC system. Investments in expanding port capacity at Aktau and Kuryk, along with strengthening the Caspian shipping fleet, are also recognized as crucial. However, specific cost estimates remain under study,” said the Energy Ministry .
Alternative Black Sea access via Baku-Supsa
Kazakhstan is also evaluating the feasibility of shipping oil through the Baku-Supsa pipeline corridor, which runs from Azerbaijan to Georgia and provides direct access to the Black Sea, offering an alternative route to European markets.
The route has an annual throughput capacity of five million tons, and Kazakhstan could utilize up to three million tons. Decisions will ultimately depend on commercial attractiveness and agreements with operators.
Utilization of the Druzhba pipeline
Since 2023, Kazakhstan has begun supplying oil through the Druzhba system into Central Europe. Deliveries to the Rosneft Deutschland company at the Schwedt refinery in Germany are underway via the Atyrau-Samara pipeline and subsequently through the Druzhba pipeline.
Deliveries to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline have grown significantly over the past year, reaching 1.5 million tons in 2024. Between January and July, Germany imported approximately 1.1 million tons of Kazakh crude oil.
Hungary has also become a recipient of Kazakh oil through an alternative route involving seaborne transport to Croatia. In August, KMG delivered 85,000 tons to the Százhalombatta refinery in Hungary, via the Adriatic oil pipeline, operated by Croatian company Jadranski naftovod (JANAF).
This marks the start of a broader strategic partnership with Hungary’s MOL Group, opening another corridor for entry into the European Union.
Southern Corridor prospects
The ministry has also indicated that exports through Iran to the Persian Gulf remain a potential long-term option.
“Development of routes through the southern corridor requires thorough study and formal approval, while oil supplies will ultimately depend on the route’s economic viability and agreements between the parties’ business entities,” said the ministry.
Market dynamics and geopolitical context
The European Union’s steady reduction of Russian oil imports, with imports of Russian crude oil dropping from 27% in 2021 to just 3% of total EU crude oil imports in 2024, is creating opportunities for Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to increase their role as alternative suppliers.
However, alternative routes face challenges of cost efficiency and infrastructure limitations.
Multi-stage logistics, requiring tankers, port handling, and multiple transit countries, make these corridors less competitive compared to CPC.
Domestic energy strategy
Beyond export diversification, Kazakhstan is rebalancing its broader energy policy.
In July, the government adopted a long-term oil refining industry development concept up to 2040, which envisions raising refining capacity from 18 million tons to 39 million tons per year. The plan also incorporates green technologies and expanded petrochemical production, signaling a gradual move from dependence on raw crude exports towards higher-value products.
Kazakhstan is building a mosaic of export routes that collectively reduce strategic vulnerability and strengthen integration with European markets. Shipments via BTC, Baku-Supsa and Druzhba remain modest compared to CPC, but they enhance resilience and geopolitical leverage.
To make export diversification sustainable, Kazakhstan should scale up infrastructure investment, secure long-term contracts with European refineries, and strengthen cooperation with transit countries around the Caspian and Black Sea.
