WNAM REPORT: The rules-based international order is facing challenges including the deepening rivalry between the U.S. and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, upgraded ties between North Korea and Russia and the Israel-Hamas war, but it needs to be sustained because it’s beneficial to Korean unification, experts said Tuesday.
Former U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon acknowledged that the U.S.-China rivalry has the biggest impact on Korean unification. South Korea has been building stronger ties with the West by seeking to join multilateral security frameworks such as the Quad and Five Eyes and reaffirming shared goals with the U.S. and Japan at Camp David summit in August last year. However, Ban said these efforts are not about confronting China.
“The Chinese view of South Korea is unlikely to change. It believes that Korea’s military and security strategy is tilted toward the U.S. However, the South Korea-U.S. alliance is not aimed at confronting China. We need to put forth a balanced foreign policy and make efforts to persuade relevant stakeholders that unification based on peace and stability strengthens China’s interests,” Ban said in his keynote speech at the Global Korea Forum held in Seoul, Tuesday.
He said increased exchanges between Seoul and Beijing in recent months, including the South Korea-China-Japan trilateral summit in May, 2+2 diplomatic security dialogue in June and resumption of the South Korea-China youth exchange program after a five-year hiatus in August, signal the two countries’ intent to improve ties.
Ban noted that the biggest hurdle to Korean unification is the divided discourse among South Koreans. “South Korea is a symbol of liberal democracy, but we have witnessed many internal conflicts. We need social integration to achieve a common goal,” he said.
Foreign experts shared their thoughts on ways to garner global consensus on peaceful unification, including gaining support from China — a major stakeholder in the Korean Peninsula.
John Everard, a former British ambassador in Pyongyang, predicted that three authoritarian regimes — China, Russia and North Korea — won’t support unification.
“China regards North Korea as a useful buffer to prevent U.S. forces from advancing to China’s borders and also as a useful piece on the geopolitical chessboard. Unification would damage Russian interests that is relying on North Korea for ammunition supply. Unification would mean the end of power for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un,” Everard said.
He added that Kim Jong-un’s declaration of a hostile relationship between two Koreas indicates the regime’s preparation for the possibility of resuming the Korean War. “North Korea is a deeply bureaucratic society, so it won’t be able to restart a war before making an official declaration,” Everard said.
However, he remained optimistic about U.S.-China relations given that the two have areas of common interest. “We need to stop talking about the deteriorating relationship between China and the U.S. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China in April. China talks excessively about its slow economy, and it knows that the U.S. can help their economy,” Everard said.
Soeya Yoshihide, professor emeritus at Keio University, stressed the importance of middle-power cooperation amid the U.S.-China-Russia strategic triangle.
“From the perspective of middle-power cooperation, the importance of strengthening relations among the AP4 nations (Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea) should stand out. The same is true for guaranteeing and advancing the stability of the Korean Peninsula,” Yoshihide said.
Ril Il-gyu, a former North Korean diplomat based in Cuba who defected to South Korea in November 2023, also attended the forum to share North Korea’s realities.
“External relations have been in decline under Kim Jong-un compared with previous leaders, Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung,” Ri said. “North Korean elites and ordinary citizens are becoming more disillusioned with the Kim Jong-un regime. Fear permeates all levels of North Korea due to Kim’s rash, impulsive behaviors and the regime’s crackdown on corruption, which is prevalent.”
