WNAM REPORT: Professor Harsh V. Pant, the Vice President at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, specializing in Asian security issues, profoundly deliberated upon India-US ties in the age of Trump as an eminent speaker virtually at the Institute of Regional Studies, Islamabad. Ms. Humera Iqbal, a Research Analyst at IRS, moderated the event, also attended by senior researchers.
Dr. Harsh Pant shared his analytical insights on President Trump’s ‘America First’ model, which brings a remarkable shift in discourse by demanding that the world consider what they can do for the United States. As a strategic partner of the US, India is increasingly viewed through an Asian perspective rather than a South Asian one, given its potential to play a significant role in the emerging balance of power in the region. Dr. Pant emphasized that the responses from both the US and India to structural changes are crucial driving factors in their relationship, especially in the context of the Indo-Pacific. He highlighted that India seeks to be America’s preferred partner, moving beyond its traditional image as a net security provider in the region.
Professor Pant emphasized that, while suspicions regarding each other’s motivations persist on both sides, the bureaucratic dynamics at institutional and political levels are actively working to build bilateral relations. Over the years, the architecture of Silicon Valley in the US has become a symbol of American Indian within the country. Similarly, the exceptional recognition granted to India by the Bush administration within the global nuclear framework has formed a trust bond between the two nations. Today, India has access to and participation in the global high-end technological and nuclear order, which is shaping contemporary geopolitics.
Dr. Harsh praised the Indian government’s diplomacy by pulling along with the Biden administration’s policy on Ukraine while effectively managing its relationship with Russia on various critical issues. Discussing the Indo-US relationship during President Trump’s second term, Dr. Harsh noted that Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit has established a foundation for the framework of their next four years relationship. Regarding the tariff challenge, President Trump aims to fast-track a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by the end of this year, while Prime Minister Modi prefers a broader BTA rather than a piecemeal approach. For India, it is crucial to procure key US products such as oil and gas, which offer significant market potential. Another challenge lies in the defense sector, where the US has offered the F-35. However, India will carefully select American products and engagements to maintain its strong position in global defense markets and resources. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, as President Trump seeks to bring the conflict to an end, India will remain comfortable with its neutral stance. If the US engages directly with Russia, then India may also choose to do so.
Dr. Harsh Pant emphasized that the biggest uncertainty for India is the China question and how President Trump will address it. Trump has been a key architect of an anti-China policy, which has also shifted the Western discourse on China. India is carefully observing the roadmap Trump will establish for a working relationship with Beijing, as it will have implications for India as well. Given India’s limited capabilities in comparison to rising China, Dr. Pant highlighted it poses an immediate challenge. Therefore, maintaining a balance of power in border areas and maritime spaces India is investing in its defense relations with the United States, both bilaterally and regionally. The aim is to ensure that stability and influence in the region do not favor any single country or entity.
He also mentioned that many in India feel confident in managing ties with President Trump, despite his unpredictable nature. The India-U.S. relationship during Trump’s presidency is expected to bring some surprises, in contrast to past decades when bilateral relations were largely insulated from disruptions. So far, the United States has afforded India a strategic space, possibly due to the realization that if the Indo-Pacific is to be the focal point of strategic competition, older alliance frameworks may not effectively manage the region. Dr. Pant strongly advocated that India is viewed as a significant partner by the United States. Over the years, the U.S. has never imposed conditions on India concerning any future critical security situations in exchange for benefits provided to them.
