Introduction
Scenario building aims to invigorate diverse perspectives or illustrations pertaining to the future of a particular theme for in depth understanding of probable future routes and likelihoods. It is imaging the future while interpreting current realities and developments. In short, it is a course from present to future. It is therefore an evolving process to shed light on drivers of change, their interactions and examining acute ambiguities. Scenario building has gained added significance in the era of intensified great power competition. In this context, this work is an effort to describe, analyse great power competition briefly and chart out options for Pakistan by building various scenarios through the study of its dynamics involving trends, continuity, discontinuity and uncertainties.
The great powers competition in this case refers to the on-going competition between the troika i.e. USA, China and Russia. Historically, whenever two of the troika forged a kind of strategic collaboration against the third power that proved decisive. Currently, China and Russia are providing strategic depth to each other against the USA as both have been declared as strategic rivals by the later. The world order is evolving with more prominent features of multi-polarity, however USA still enjoys the dominant position as a dollar printer. The shift of global trade particularly of energy to other currencies will be the decisive factor in shaping new world order. China is a major stake holder in current global economic system while Russia seems not. The USA’s gestures on Taiwan may push China to a harden stance towards current global order. USA may not opt for a war with China however it desires to deny access to China to global markets by impeding BRI through various regions. USA also aims at maintaining America`s technological and military superiority by blocking China’s access to AI and advance technologies.
There are also important differences from the old great power competition for instance between the former Soviet Union and USA. Soviet Union was economically weak and lacked homogeneity and nation hood. Former Soviet Union and USA were adversaries while China and USA are still rivals. China is economic powerhouse and have concrete plans for global engagements backed by financial capabilities. Importantly Pakistan had not to choose sides particularly between China and USA. 
Pakistan lacks the strength to shape global environment however much vulnerable to harm from it. Pakistan has historically benefited from USA’s aid and trade and military equipments. However their relationship never remained free of cost. The cost in terms of human and material outweighed the benefits at times. Importantly this bilateral relationship always marred by a trust deficit and therefore both benefited and at the same time also felt aggrieved.
Pak-China bilateral relations in contrast are free of strategic burdens and deep trust level is a hall mark of this relationship. China importantly is a neighbour plus an emerging global economic power. China doesn’t impose any restrictions on Pakistan to enter cooperative relations with any other country. China desires a strong and stable Pakistan and always supported Pakistan’s stance on regional and global issues. China will be the last country to see Pakistan instable due to converged interests. These are the features of Pak-China relations that few other bilateral relations may possess. So long as US-China relations remain unsteady it will have a direct bearing on Pakistan’s effort to reset ties with the US especially as containing China is a top American priority.
Pakistan and Russia has also developed trust and have been in cooperation in Central Asia during the last decade or so. There seems a-historical Pak-Russia convergence on Afghanistan. Pakistan has to preserve this hard earned trust and cooperative relations providing much needed diversification to its foreign relations in an uncertain global environment.
Scenario 1. Changing Regional Dynamics, Impact on Great Powers Competition and Options for Pakistan
USA’s withdrawal from the region has diminished Pakistan’s importance for USA to great extent. USA as a matter of fact could not shape the regional developments in its desired direction when it was physically present in the region provided the plan was not otherwise. Conflict may escalate in greater Central Asia if Afghanistan moves into chaos again which will not only impede China’s Belt but also create security issues for China and Russia. Pakistan will suffer the most in that case. Multiple dimensions of Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan will preoccupy Islamabad. Security situation in Afghanistan is still volatile. It is worth mentioning that if Afghanistan moves into chaos it would not remain a regional issue rather may become a global problem as turned out in 1990s. Afghanistan has become a regional responsibility in changed regional circumstances. The Central Asian Republics in contrast to 1990s have consolidated their nation and state-hood and are rapidly developing economically. Central Asia can move in either direction towards regionalism or towards a shatter belt as a conflict arena. The two giants Russia and China surrounding the region have consensus to keep their backyard i.e. Central Asia stable. USA may desire to counter both from within the region while Russia and China are the main stakeholders in peace and stability of the region. Pakistan’s ‘Vision Central Asia Policy’ compels it for closer cooperation with China and Russia. USA may also benefit from South and Central Asia integration by investing in the regional connectivity infrastructure while Pakistan has to manoeuvre politically in this regard vis-à-vis its relations with USA. 
Scenario 2. Pakistan Regionalised
Pakistan desperately needs to be regionalised in terms of security, trade and economics. Regionalisation of Pakistan means regional integration between Central, South and West Asias. China can definitely prove instrumental in this regard. Pakistan’s relations with China will remain its overriding priority. The option is to prioritise geo-economics to complement CPEC with Pakistan-Afghanistan-Central Asia Economic corridor. Russia-Ukraine protracted conflict also induces Russia to open up via Central Asia to South Asia, Arabian Sea and beyond. Russia acknowledges Pakistan’s importance in this regard. The best option for Pakistan’s regionalisation is in the direction of Central Asia having hydrocarbons, minerals, metals and most wanted agrarian products like cotton and grain. Pakistan needs a strong regional policy in this regard because change in regional orientation demands fundamental change in foreign policy approach. It is obvious that such approach is purely based on Pakistan’s security and economic interests and not against any great power. To this end, cooperation with all powers ready to cooperate shall be welcome.
Scenario 3. The Region Moves from Shatter Belt to Regionalism
In changed regional and global contexts, Central Asian Republics desire to open up in south direction via Afghanistan to ease Russian and Chinese pressure on the region. With USA’s withdrawal a direct great power competition in the region has come to end as conflict with Ukraine has also diverted Russia’s attention from the region. The ‘Layover Phenomenon’ is ended. Additional space is available with the countries of the region for political manoeuvre. If Afghanistan moves towards sustainable peace the region will most probably move from a shatter belt status (a region torn by internal strives and external interventions) to strengthened regionalism. In case of peaceful region Pakistan will benefit the most from cooperation with China and Russia as the regional dynamics also indicate. The region in future seems to be more reliant on China and Russia in terms of development and security. Shared prosperity and development shall be the goal by aligning and accommodating each other interests in regional context. Pakistan’s integration with Central Asia will be most beneficial due to Central Asia’s resource base in contrast to South Asia. In this case Pakistan will be subject to constant pressure from USA. Only internal political and economic stability will provide space to Pakistan to bear pressure from USA and pursue independent foreign policy choices. Internal strength will definitely enhance Pakistan’s appeal so that neither the US nor China can afford to lose it. A weak Pakistan would need both and be constantly worried about having to make a choice one day.
Scenario 4. The Region Remains Disintegrated
If Afghanistan moves into chaos again the regional security and connectivity/integration both will be jeopardised. The regions of South and Central Asia are least integrated in the world which remains one of the main causes of regional under development. The stake for great powers has been to control Central and South Asia’s integration via Afghanistan for strategic and economic reasons. This control over Central Asia- South Asia integration via Afghanistan has been recently denied to USA/NATO by regional and global geo-politics as it was denied to former Soviet Russia earlier. The region may remain disintegrated if any of the major power intends to be hegemon in the region and if countries of the region indulged in a zero sum game on behalf of any major power. The regional countries have to address the issues of security and development from a regional perspective. Pakistan has to develop synergies with regional countries. In this context Pakistan has to work closely with time tested friend China. China-Russia collaboration also solidifies Pakistan-Russia cooperation.
Scenario 5. Saudi-Iran Deal Sustains; Implications for Great Powers Competition and Pakistan
China’s international clout elevated while brokering Saudi-Iran deal for restoration and development of bilateral relations. The agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia demonstrates China’s ability to bring two avowed adversaries together and assist them in finding common ground. On the other hand USA’s military actions in Middle East have been viewed as un-stabilising the region. The deal will release Saudi’s pressure on Pakistan in dealing with Iran and may open up new vistas of cooperation in regional context for Pakistan. Iran is a neighbour having third largest gas reserves in the world after Russia and Qatar. Saudi Arabia provides essential financial assistance and employees more than three million Pakistanis. Pakistan and Iran have already developed synergies on Afghanistan and regional cooperation in various fields including energy and security will be enhanced. USA will definitely continuously pressurise Pakistan to keep distance from Iran and work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline may not resume due to sanctions on Iran. Pakistan shall continuously work towards implementation of IPI. Pakistan will be better positioned to link CPEC with Iran and BRI. The regional trajectory indicates a kind of alliance between China, Russia and Iran and Saudi-Iran deal may neutralise Saudi in this context. The deal provides Pakistan freedom from complex act of balancing between Saudi and Iran at least and lessens domestic sectarian frictions. China’s investment in Iran also undermines India’s interests while Iran is trying to balance its relations with China and India. However sanctions will profoundly limit any close cooperation between Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan has to identify comprehensive economic opportunities for bilateral relations with the USA in tandem with a tightening embrace with China.
Scenario 6. Pakistan and Great Powers Competition in South Asian Context
It is obvious that Pakistan will continuously enjoy China’s diplomatic support on Kashmir issue which may not be the case in relations with USA and Russia. India recently has shown autonomy in foreign policy choices given its economic and political stature in comparison to Pakistan. USA and India are in collaboration against China however it seems almost impossible for India to militarily engage China solely for USA’s interests. The reality check Pakistan needs to carry out is not to expect equality in US ties with itself and India. These two relationships have different purposes, roles and trajectories. But it is possible, though at the moment improbable that US-India relations could weaken. South Asia offers least to Pakistan in terms of trade and economic integration as it lacks energy resources and except India South Asia comprises of small markets. Pakistan needs to facilitate South Asia’s integration and connectivity with Central Asia. It will make Pakistan more relevant and attractive in regional as well as global contexts. In evolving its foreign policy strategy Pakistan has to match its goals to its diplomatic resources and capital. No strategy is effective unless ends and means are aligned. (The author is: Professor at Area Study Centre (Russia, China & Central Asia), University of Peshawar, Pakistan)
