WNAM MONITORING: The Ministry of Finance has drafted a socio-economic development plan for 2026, setting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 10 percent – a sharp increase compared to this year’s expected growth, despite the international forecasts of a slowdown.
In its recent report to the Government, the ministry said the Vietnamese economy is on track to basically fulfil the overall goals set for 2025, with all 15 key indicators expected to be achieved. GDP growth is projected to reach at least 8 percent in 2025, with per capita income rising to USD 5,000 and inflation staying at around 4 percent, providing the launchpad for double-digit growth in 2026.
According to the first draft of the 2026 socio-economic development plan, GDP per capita is projected at USD 5,000, inflation at around 5 percent, and poverty reduction of 1-1.5 percent.
The ministry’s draft plan is in line with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s directive earlier this year, which set 2026 as the first year the economy would embark on the double-digit growth journey – a step toward a new era of prosperity.
However, the double-digit growth target is far more ambitious than forecasts by international institutions, as the Vietnamese economy continues to face challenges from increasing global uncertainties.
Singapore–based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast of 7 percent for Vietnam in 2026, though it raised its 2025 forecast from 6.9 percent to 7.5 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected Vietnam’s growth to slow to 6.5 percent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026, citing the full-year effect of the new US tariffs announced in July and the unwinding of most of the one-off 2025 government stimulus.
“The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained by elevated global uncertainty over trade policies and economic environment,” the IFM wrote.
“A further escalation in global trade tensions or a tightening of global financial conditions could weaken further exports and investment. Domestically, financial stress could re-emerge from tighter financial conditions and high corporate indebtedness.”
On the upside, successfully implementing infrastructure projects and structural reforms could significantly boost medium-term growth. If global trade tensions subsided, the economic outlook would also improve, according to the IFM.
As the economy’s export‑led growth model faces increasing challenges from rapidly evolving and uncertain global trade policies, population ageing, tightening global financial conditions, and climate change, the IMF emphasized that policies should focus on maintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while advancing reforms to ensure robust, diversified, and stable medium‑term growth.
The World Bank, in its report in September, forecast Vietnam’s economy to grow 6.6 percent in 2025, ease to 6.1 percent in 2026, and then rebound to 6.5 percent in 2027.
