Air Marshal (Retd) Shahid Akhtar Alvi
It has become vital for Pakistan to maintain a robust and credible deterrence posture in these turbulent times. With Prime Minister Modi’s increasingly irrational approach and repeated acts of aggression devoid of political sense or military logic, deterrence has never been as important as it is today. South Asia is under intense global scrutiny for its rising strategic relevance, yet the internal trajectory of India under the BJP has introduced dangerous volatility. The ruling party has gradually infiltrated the thinking of the Indian military establishment, eroding the secular and professional outlook that once guided its higher command. This ideological drift has made the regional environment more unstable than ever before and in such an atmosphere, Pakistan’s capacity for controlled, disciplined deterrence becomes the key anchor of stability.
Deterrence is a simple word, however to establish and maintain it requires an intricate strategy. In South Asia, the margin for error is thin; a misread move can escalate into catastrophe when the stakes are high and emotion often overtakes judgment. In such an environment, it has been seen by the world that air power emerges as the most flexible and decisive instrument of deterrence.
The decisive deterrent effect of air power lies in its sheer destructive potential. A modern air force, whether the PAF or the IAF, wields long-range precision weapons capable of striking targets hundreds of kilometres away with near-pinpoint accuracy. Such capability places entire industrial, logistical, and communication networks at the mercy of the adversary’s air arm, the destruction of which can halt a nation’s progress for a considerable period and bring misery to millions, and this refers only to the conventional component of modern weaponry. In today’s environment, the precision and destructive reach of air power even deny ground forces the freedom to manoeuvre in large formations. Only an air force that secures and sustains air superiority can create the space for such movement. During Operation Marka-e-Haq, the PAF demonstrated that superiority decisively; within a day, the IAF’s flying activity fell sharply, restrained by the fear of further losses. This is why, in the modern strategic setting, an air force remains the foremost instrument of deterrence. A well-led, disciplined, and adaptive air force can alter the balance of fear within hours. The Pakistan Air Force has demonstrated this repeatedly using precision, speed, and control to establish both psychological and operational dominance.
The PAF’s reputation took form during the testing years of 1965 and 1971, when a determined force of limited means held its ground against a far larger adversary, and later, when discipline and courage under pressure upheld its professional dignity amid the 1971 war and national turmoil. These experiences established an enduring truth that superior training, clarity of command, and coherent tactics can offset numerical disadvantage, setting a pattern that would define the PAF’s future conduct.
The 2019 crisis around Balakot provided a modern demonstration. Both sides claimed success, but the episode proved something important: air action can be calibrated to communicate resolve without forcing uncontrollable escalation. Pakistan’s measured responses and ability to operate under intense scrutiny made clear that conventional air power, when skilfully applied, can alter perceptions of risk and resolve.
More recently, Marka-e-Haq and its associated operations demonstrated this principle at scale. The Pakistani Armed Forces’ conduct during the campaign, and the PAF’s contribution to decisive responses, created a clear shock effect in adversary calculations. The result was immediate: military commanders on the other side advised a pause, aircraft were grounded, and political caution set in, demonstrating a calculated shift in the adversary’s operational risk assessment. The strategic lesson from Balakot and Marka-e-Haq is that conventional air power can complement, and in some circumstances substitute for, other forms of deterrence.
That psychological effect, fear mixed with awe, is earned when an opposing air force proves three things at once. First, it can reach and dominate the battlespace quicker than the adversary and persist there. Second, its maintenance and logistics allow a rapid and continuous generation of sorties. Third, its weapons and tactics are aligned with clear operational aims. Pakistan, by virtue of its maintenance acumen and well-established logistics, has the capability to generate and sustain a high tempo of operations, which is evidence of a force that can climb the escalation ladder deliberately and swiftly when national policy demands it. But let us remember, this is not merely about hardware, but about the leadership, people, training, and discipline that turn machines into a fighting force. The memory of the PAF’s pre-emptive strikes in 1965, which caught enemy bases off guard, reinforced by the timely and precise responses at Balakot and during the recent Marka-e-Haq operations, remains the real currency of deterrence.
There is another mark of credibility: other countries seek Pakistan out. Training exchanges and multinational exercises from routine bilateral drills to complex multinational events are increasing. Air forces come to learn and to test interoperability. That flocking is not symbolic.; it is a public acknowledgement that Pakistan offers hard operational experience and useful lessons in air operations with limited resources but full effectiveness. Such defence diplomacy reinforces deterrence because it broadcasts competence and international confidence.
Deterrence also depends on restraint. The PAF’s professional ethos has repeatedly shown that measured, precise responses are possible even when national emotion runs high. Restraint and resolution together produce the effect we require: the adversary recognizes capability and expects controlled, professional behaviour, not unpredictable escalation. That expectation keeps the crisis ladder short and visible to decision-makers on both sides.
Finally, let us be candid about limits. Capability must be sustained by investment in maintenance, training, and doctrine. After having seen the performance of Pakistan air force in combat, the world admires how it manages readiness between conflicts. A force that can sustain high sortie rates, keep weapons current and train with partners remains the most immediate and controllable instrument of national defence.
In short: the PAF has shown that a smaller, professional air force, led with clarity and refusing compromise on standards, can create deterrence that is both credible and controllable. That deterrence has a practical effect: a pause in the enemy’s calculus and a margin in which statesmen can choose the safer path. In our region, where misjudgement is costly, that pause is worth everything.
