The two Islamic republics, Pakistan and Iran enjoyed cordial relations – devoid of sectarian rifts which is the case of Iran’s other neighbours in the Persian Gulf. Despite close Indo-Iranian and Pak-Saudi ties, the bilateral relations remain stable, though far from cordial.
Owing to the presence of non-state actors, unstable and violent hotspots in both Iran and Pakistan continue to pose challenges. These groups and their activities have caused political grievances on both sides but border skirmishes did not escalate to the level as they did recently.
In a surprising move, on January 16th Iran launched a missile attack inside Pakistan. Iranians claimed the attacks were targeted against elements of Jaish-Al-Adl (an Iranian-based terrorist group). Iranian foreign minister also hinted at the group’s ties to Israel. But the facts speak the opposite. As per Pakistan’s Foreign Office the overnight attacks claimed the life of two children and injuring three more – a clear violation of international law and violating sovereignty of a neighbouring country.
These attacks and the resulting civilian casualties sparked anger in Pakistan. Pakistan, already going through a political turmoil and an increasing entanglement with Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (inspired by the success of the Afghan Taliban) on the Western front. The Iranian attack in Pakistan amidst the ongoing war on Gaza and tension with Israel following the October 7 attacks, is confusing.
In response to the attacks Pakistan exercised caution and care. Opting for diplomatic arsenal, Pakistan called its ambassador from Tehran and told the Iranian ambassador who is on home visit to not return. Judging by the statement of the Iranian foreign minister, it is safe to say that Iran was not ready to accept that it has crossed a line with Pakistan. Thus, on 18th January Pakistan launched a counter-attack inside Iran targeting the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) and Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), in the Sistan province of Iran. Pakistan Foreign Office claimed the death of 10 terrorists, all Pakistani nationals. The Deputy Governor of Sistan confirmed that those killed were all foreign nationals.
Threats of escalation loom higher but according to recent updates, both sides agreed to de-escalate tensions. The normalization measures included the discussion of the restoration of diplomatic representation and strong coordinated counter-terrorism measures.
Though the situation seems under control for the time being. But this action-reaction chain needs to be analyzed within a broader regional setting.
First, the episode is part of a broader tension in West Asia due to the genocide of innocent Palestinians at the hands of the occupying Israeli forces. In this conflict, Iran is openly siding with Hamas, Iranian backed Hezbollah in Lebanon strikes on Israel and Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen are targeting Israeli and American ships in Red Sea. Due to all this, Iran-Israel and US-Iran rivalry became exacerbated. With America and Israel directly threating an attack on Iran. In such regional setting it seems illogical for Iran to add up in war fronts. The possible strategic logic behind the recent offense can be to give a clear message to Pakistan for staying neutral in Iran-West confrontation. The other case may be to expand conflict zone for conveying to US, the intensity and implications of any offense.
Second, Pakistan’s relations with its Western neighbor is also not stable. Because of Afghanistan’s irredentist claim and its backing of Pakhtoon nationalists. With the Taliban regaining power in 2021, Pakistan hoped that its western border would be secured from TTP. But contrary to expectation, tensions escalated. 2023 was the worst year as the number of martyrdoms of Pakistan security forces was highest. In response to Kabul’s advice of restoring negotiations with TTP, the Pakistani government pursued a tougher stance on the closure of the Pakistani border and the repatriation of illegal Afghan refugees. There were continuous instances of border skirmishes. In such a scenario Pakistan could neither afford another rival neighbour. Nor was it in a position to ignore the attacks. As non-response could encourage Iranian offense in future and will also encourage TTP for further offense.
Pakistan’s response must also be analyzed within South Asian developments. Pakistan had a long history of rivalry with India. After the introduction of nuclear deterrence, India is continuously in search of a space to exploit its conventional superiority against Pakistan. In this direction, the Indian Cold Start doctrine (2004) remained unsuccessful. So in recent years, India came up with its new military doctrine called “New Normal”. Through New Normal India is aimed at launching targeted strikes in Pakistan. In this direction, the 2019 Balakot strikes and the operation Swift Retot by the Pakistan air force were very significant. In response to Indian New Normal, Pakistan came up with its strategy of conventional deterrence called “Quid Pro Quo Plus” (QPQP). Through this strategy Pakistan aims to use all options at its disposal to ensure its territorial integrity. India fully supported Iranian offense, thus retaliation was mandatory to give a clear cut message to India.
Sandwiched between two irredentist neighbors, Pakistan cannot afford another hostile neighbor. At the same time, Pakistan’s inaction could be miscalculated by adversaries. The “let go” or “ignore policy” can lead to the reinforcement of illegal and offensive behaviour by Iran. Reaction was necessary to give a strong message to the hostile elements that despite internal problems, Pakistan is well prepared to safeguard its sovereignty. And that the political-military bureaucracy and public are united against the external threat.
(The Writer is Assistant Professor at Muslim Youth University Islamabad)
