WNAM MONITORING: Central Asia’s water woes continue to grow worse. The water flow in the Amu Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers, is slowly but significantly diminishing in Tajikistan, where the river originates.
A recently released report shows the Amu Darya’s water flow in the middle and lower reaches in Tajikistan has fallen over the course of recent decades by 54-77%. And the report lays the blame firmly on human activity, not climate change.
Up In the Mountains of Tajikistan
The study published on ScienceDirect looked at data collected over 90 years and concludes that “streamflow decreased by 54–77% in the middle and lower reaches” of the Amu Darya in Tajikistan. Interestingly, the report mentions that precipitation in the mountains of Tajikistan has actually increased between 6 and 13%, but the Amu Darya’s water level is falling because people are using more water.
The expansion of agriculture is the reason, accounting for 92% of the water reduction in Tajikistan, but the recent construction of water reservoirs is also playing a role.
Lower flows of water were noted on many of the tributaries in Tajikistan that feed into the Amu Darya, including the “Vakhsh, Kunduz, Kofirnihon, Surkhandarya, Zeravshan, and Kashkadarya (rivers),” which showed streamflow reductions of 4–34%.
The report said that areas in the upper reaches of the Amu Darya should see increased water levels, but this is mainly due to climate change hastening the melting of snow and glaciers.
Once the glaciers are gone, the water will rapidly decrease.
Bad News Downstream
Water problems upstream in Tajikistan translate to bigger problems downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
Both have already noticed a reduction in the amount of water in the Amu Darya, most visibly that the river has not reached the Aral Sea for about two decades now, contributing to the sea shrinking by some 90% since the 1960s.
Every year the river recedes further south, forcing downstream communities suddenly without water to relocate. Climate change is now hastening this process in the arid, desert lands along the Uzbek-Turkmen border, but both countries are preparing for a bigger, impending shock.
The Taliban started construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in 2022, with the project scheduled to be completed in 2028. While Central Asia was liberally taking water from the Amu Darya for agricultural use, Afghanistan was in no position to claim its share until now.
The canal will draw water from the Amu Darya at an area across from Uzbekistan and open up new agricultural land in northern Afghanistan, where food has long been in short supply.
The 280-kilometer canal is expected to take some 16-20% of the water left in the Amu Darya after it leaves Tajikistan. Upstream Tajikistan’s falling water levels, of course, mean the Qosh Tepa Canal will also be receiving less and less water.
The Combination
For most of the 2020s, large areas of Central Asia have been experiencing droughts, prompting the governments there to implement water conservation measures. But as they find more ways to save water, there is less water to save.
In December 2025, Uzbekistan’s hydrometeorological service said autumn temperatures were 1-2 Celsius hotter than average, and precipitation across the country was between 2 and 35% below the seasonal norm.
May brought some relief, with 50% more rain than usual falling in the Tashkent Province, as well as substantial amounts in the Samarkand and Jizzakh provinces.
Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, was warning as early as January that his country could face water shortages in the summer. As summer 2026 begins, large areas of Central Asia are already experiencing abnormally high temperatures and below-average rainfall.
Kazhydromet warned at the end of June that districts in nine of the country’s 17 provinces could enter drought in July. Uzhydromet has also forecast hot and dry conditions for July.
The growing population in Central Asia has been a concern as water scarcity increases.
On June 30, Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee announced the country’s population now exceeds 39 million people, up from about 20 million when Uzbekistan became independent in late 1991.
Tajikistan’s population is reportedly approaching eleven million, more than double the population of just over five million in 1989.
The Central Asian governments have been taking measures to alleviate the effects of climate change for the past few years, especially in terms of water management. Irrigation canals have been repaired, new water reservoirs built, and old reservoirs fixed and improved.
But they have always been racing against the clock, and some might say they stand little chance of being able to prevent significant migration pressure of people from southern and western areas of Central Asia in the not-too-distant future as water sources vanish.
This recent report indicates that the reduction of water in the Amu Darya is already a long-term problem with no quick solutions in sight.
Even hundreds of years ago, water was regarded as the region’s most important resource, and now that message is becoming increasingly tangible across Central Asia.
