Pakistan-Kazakhstan diplomatic relations are built on trust, mutual respect and goodwill foundations for cordial ties. While security cooperation between the two countries is extensive and complex, there is a need to deepen economic cooperation. Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement QTTA signed between China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan connects Kazakhstan via China and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan’s Gawadar Port. It is still underutilized and in 2023, National Logistics Company NLC of Pakistan completed its first operation from Karakoram Highway to Almaty, Kazakhstan. Additionally, Pakistan and Kazakhstan are planning to sign Transit Trade Agreement as an extension of QTTA. Trade between Kazakhstan and Pakistan is also carried at Trans Afghan corridor via Uzbekistan route which is more convenient than QTTA as it is open year round. There are talks of strengthening the Trans Afghan corridor via Uzbekistan route through Trans-Afghan railway project. There are also prospects of integration of QTTA and Trans Afghan corridor via Uzbekistan route into CPEC. Both QTTA and Trans Afghan corridor via Uzbekistan route are important for Pakistan as it provides connectivity to Central Asia and can lead to economic and energy security. It is also a strategic route for Kazakhstan as it provides access to the global market beyond the Arabian Sea, reducing reliance on traditional routes and increasing global market competitiveness. Additionally Kazakhstan exports to Pakistan increased from $0.677m in FY24 to $129.63m in FY25, making Pakistan a lucrative market for Kazakhstani exports.
As we have discussed above connectivity is advantageous to both the countries. However there are problems for functioning of both routes as QTTA is closed in winter months and passes through rough terrain. Despite this it is now a more stable route as compared to Trans Afghan corridor via Uzbekistan route as the latter is frequently being closed due to unstable Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. This is affecting trade between Kazakhstan and also Uzbekistan. On micro level, there are other issues on these transit routes like implementation TIR convention, custom unions, digitization visa of truck drivers etc. Another issue is Pakistan exports to Kazakhstan have dropped from $185.25m in FY24 to $97.96m in FY25, and there is lack of Pakistani export diversification in Kazakhstani market. But these issues can only be addressed if the transit routes are actually open for trade.
Integration of AI, big data analytics and blockchain can solve issues for enforcing transit route agreements. For state level trade relations Pakistan and Kazakhstan can improve commercial diplomacy through Free Trade Agreements, implementation of TIR convention, digital custom clearance, and cooperation in banking sectors. Potential sectors for further cooperation include agriculture, leather, SME and IT. There can be greater cooperation in service industry where both can collaborate on exchange in educational sector, human resource development, knowledge transfer and training of skilled labor. Interestingly, street in Islamabad Abai Qunanbaiuly and streets in Astana are being named after Muhammad Ali Jinnah. This is only the start of greater socio-cultural interaction. People to people interaction will diversify cooperation and help in further collaboration between the two countries in terms of trade and investment. This could be done by cultural diplomacy of both the countries to increase cooperation, language exchange programs, culture exchange programs, festivals collaboration etc. Both countries could increase cooperation in arts, films and music, and this interaction could integrate Pakistan’s textile industry. Tourism could be great revenue for both countries having UNESCO heritage sites.
However, the above mentioned initiatives for increasing trade, investment and economic development streamlining it with technology and people to people interaction between the countries would be useless without stable transit routes. Stable transit routes and land connectivity is the key for successful Pakistan-Kazakhstan cooperation. QTTA is not operational in winter, which leaves the Afghanistan route as the most optimal option. Pakistan needs to resume diplomacy with Afghanistan, for regional stability, border security, border area economic activities and regional connectivity with Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Afghanistan needs trade and access to Arabian Sea, geography can never be changed and both have potential to be viable partners. Here economic interdependence can make Pakistan a valuable partner for Afghanistan which could make dialogues regarding issues related to terrorism and TTP hold more weight. Kazakhstan being an internationally responsible state can play a mediating role in smoothing relationship between the two countries. There are many infrastructure projects which require Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asian States cooperation like CASA 1000, Termez Peshawar Railway and Khyber Pass Economic Corridor, Trans Afghan Multimodal Corridor. These are the shortest routes reducing distance of transport from EU and CIS countries from 20-30% as compared to traditional sea and rail routes. This can help development and connectivity of regions of South Asia and Central Asia. Economic development can lead to enhanced security, prestige and better international standing for Pakistan. There is a need for Pakistan to think pragmatically for long term prosperity and development especially with regards to Pakistan-Kazakhstan relations.
