Just two months after a thaw in India-China relations, tensions have resurfaced.
In late October, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met China’s President Xi Jinping in Russia, marking their first bilateral talks in half a decade. This came after a series of diplomatic negotiations to end their military stand-off at their disputed frontier in the disputed Ladakh region.
Days earlier, India’s Foreign Ministry had confirmed a new patrolling arrangement along the border, leading to military disengagement and further easing of friction that had peaked after deadly clashes in 2020, resulting in a total 24 soldiers killed — 20 from India and four from China.
But the detente has not lasted. Earlier this month, China announced it was establishing two new counties in parts of the disputed Ladakh border region it claims control over, a move that has drawn ire from New Delhi, which responded with a diplomatic protest.
Further fueling tensions, Beijing also has plans to build a hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet have also raised fresh concerns in downstream India.
Analysts suggest that although relations had shown signs of improvement, recent developments indicate they remain far from normal. They point to another major factor in the dispute — the two countries’ bilateral relationship with Washington — which is shaping ties between the two Asian neighbors.
– Last four years
The India-China border dispute dates back to the 1950s, culminating in a brief but intense war in 1962 over boundary demarcation. India suffered a defeat, losing control of Aksai Chin, a region that remains disputed to this day. Despite several border agreements in the 1990s aimed at ensuring peace, tensions have continued intermittently.
The situation escalated significantly in the 2020 clash in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley, the deadliest confrontation in decades.
Tensions had been triggered months after India divided Jammu and Kashmir and separated Ladakh from the region into two federally-ruled union territories, revoking their long-held autonomy.
Reportedly, Beijing gained control of 60 square kilometers (about 23 square miles) previously held by Indian troops, though New Delhi denies any territorial loss.
This event led to widespread public outrage in India and strained bilateral relations. In retaliation, India imposed economic restrictions on China, including banning Chinese apps like TikTok and tightening investment regulations.
Following the 2020 incident, both nations engaged in multiple rounds of talks to ease tensions. Occasional border scuffles took place in 2021 and 2022, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh, but did not escalate.
Meanwhile, ramped-up diplomatic efforts culminated in a 2023 agreement to push for further disengagement. In August 2023, Modi and Xi met on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in South Africa, signaling a potential thaw and a shift toward more constructive dialogue, despite the disagreement over the border.
The disengagement initially took place in several spots of tension, including Galwan Valley, Hot Springs and PangongTso, but two spots — Demchok and Depsang — remain contentious.
– Recent thaw
On Oct. 21, India’s Foreign Ministry announced an agreement with China on an arrangement for patrolling by the armies of the two countries on the disputed border.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told a news briefing that the agreement “is leading to disengagement and eventually the resolution of issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”
On Dec. 4, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar informed Parliament that the disengagement along the border has set the stage for improving relations between the two countries.
“The next priority will be to consider de-escalation, that would address the massing of troops along the LAC,” he added, referring to the Line of Actual Control, the de facto boundary in the disputed region.
Both countries, he said, must respect and adhere to the LAC, avoid any unilateral attempts to alter the status quo, and ensure that past agreements are fully honored.
Despite the tensions, India and China are key trading partners, with bilateral trade at $118 billion. Improved relations, experts say, could boost business collaboration, especially in telecommunications and pharmaceuticals, where China plays a significant role as a supplier to India.
“China would like to see a prosperous India as part of an Asian Century, while India needs technology, investment, and trade goods that can be economically supplied by China,” Beijing-based political analyst Einar Tangen told Anadolu.
But observers say that a lack of trust, fueled by misunderstandings and media influence, makes rebuilding relations difficult. Both sides must take gradual actions, but the challenge is heightened by the clash of differing civilizations and areas of influence, Tangen said.
– Fresh friction
But after the announcement of the two new Chinese counties, India’s Foreign Ministry said on Jan. 3 that it had lodged a protest with Beijing.
According to New Delhi, parts of the counties, He’an and Hekang, fall within India’s Himalayan Union Territory of Ladakh, which New Delhi claims as its sovereign territory. India doubled down on this position, asserting it does not accept China’s “illegal occupation” and that the creation of these counties would not affect its sovereignty claim.
India has also raised concerns over China’s plan to construct a massive hydropower dam on the Yarlung Zangbo River in Tibet, which flows into India. The government has urged Beijing to ensure that downstream states, including India, are not negatively impacted by this project.
Approved last month, the dam will be the largest of its kind globally, with an estimated generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.
– Why have tensions reignited?
Pravin Sawhney, the editor of New Delhi-based strategic affairs magazine Force, said India wants the border situation to de-escalate and for the sides to return to their April 2020 positions — an “unlikely” prospect as China “is not expected to retreat.”
“India knows this,” he said. “So, what they have done is they have shifted the goal posts.”
On the naming of two new counties, Sawhney said the move was part of china’s response to India’s 2019 decision to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status.
India drew new maps in the wake of the decision, showing Aksai Chin, which is under Chinese control, within its boundaries. The move was rejected by China, calling it “cartographic aggression” and reaffirmed the area as part of its territory.
“China is responding to India’s move to rename areas in China by renaming areas in India. It’s a tit-for-tat exchange,” said Einar, referring to reports from June 2024, when it was revealed that India planned to rename several locations in China’s Tibet region in response to Beijing assigning official Chinese names to places in the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
Sawhney said the course of the India-China relationship will be largely determined by US President Donald Trump’s China policy.
“India may be forced to reassess its policy towards China if US-China relations improve,” he said.
Einar said Beijing wants to move things along, “but (has) a concern that Delhi is trying to use the situation as a chip against current frictions with Washington,” he said.
He stated that Indian Prime Minister Modi’s trip to Moscow and developments during the trip signaled his displeasure with Washington’s perceived meddling in the 2024 Indian elections and its alleged role in dethroning a pro-Indian government in Bangladesh.
Einar said Washington is unhappy with India’s economic ties to Russia, as New Delhi is the largest buyer of Russian oil and the second-largest supplier of sensitive equipment.
“The fact that the border dispute made progress only after the problems with Washington, and the lack of movement towards a border demarcation has made China wonder if it’s being used as a chip in the US-India relationship,” he said. ( Curtsey: Anadolu)
