The economic evaluations and valuable suggestions of the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee in the recently held meetings has successfully mitigated the western false and fake propaganda against China’s economy and its so-called poor future prospects. Rather, it has further enhanced confidence of investors, businessmen and even manufacturers in the region and around the world.
It rightly disseminated message of economic stability, sustainability and healthier prospects to local, regional and international markets. In addition to this, its recently announced strategic priorities comprising of Sci-tech, innovation, development of modern industrial system, boosting of domestic demand, support to agriculture, rural farmers, initiation of integrated urban-rural development, coordinated regional development, immense socio development, high opening-up and prevention of risks in key areas vividly reflects economic wisdom of the Chinese policy makers. 
Moreover, advance of ecological conservation and start of green, low carbon development will hopefully further enhance the Chinese economy productivity in the next year and beyond. It would be a value addition to fight against global warming in the days to come.
It is good omen that upward revision of China’s GDP percentage by numerous international financial institutions, including IMF (5 to 5.4 percent), OECD (5 to 5.2 percent), Morgan Stanley (4.8 to 5.1 percent) and Citigroup (5 to 5.3 percent) clearly demonstrated real strength and diversification of the Chinese economy during 2023. These published reports have also expressed optimism about China’s growth outlook for 2024 as they believe that domestic consumption will continue to recover, investment will continue to increase and exports will improve. So all in all the Chinese economy will be good shape creating lots of good things for the global economy and productive channels in 2024 and beyond.
Despite ongoing decoupling and de-risking constant policies the macro-economy of China remained resilient, strong, stable and sustainable during 2023. Hopefully, it will be further developed, diversified and determined in 2024 and beyond because of its huge base and productivity channels.
According to official Chinese figures (December 2023), its economy has again contributed about one-third to global economic growth showing again its global outreach and comparative advantage in industrial supply chains, green energies and EVs.
The comparative studies of the latest Chinese statistical data reveal that it achieved its agriculture targets i.e. 695 million tons of grain output further enhanced by 1.3 percent during 2023 and thus its food security is intact. Domestic consumption reached to 83.2 percent of the GDP, foreign trade reached to 798.99 RMB (US$111.32 billion) mainly solar panels, lithium batteries and electric vehicles increased by 41.7 percent all indicate highest levels of positivity and productivity of the Chinese economy.
The increase of China’s global share of FDI in 2021 and 2022 to 12 percent and 15 percent respectively shows global confidence in the Chinese vast market. New firms registered in China 37814 increased by 32.4 percent. Last but not least, China-Europe freight trains made 16145 trips reconfirming China’s passion for greater trans-regional connectivity and positive role in the global economy.
It seems that the Chinese economic diplomacy, trans-regional connectivity, numerous FTAs, integrated regionalism, qualitative industrialization, digitalization, green transformation and above all the BRI are successfully mitigating western untrue and biased propaganda of China’s Economic Collapse Theory (CECT).
Luckily, China possesses a business/investment friendly policies, innovative apparatus, a big and vibrant consumer market, an advanced infrastructure, a complete industrial chain and unlimited high-quality human resources, which, along with policies of openness, modernization, qualitative industrialization, international cooperation, economic globalization and timely institutionalization of new structural reforms pertaining to private sector growth, rectification of real estate market, domestic banking, stock exchange, foreign direct investments and above all further nurturing of human capital refute the western propaganda of so-called slowdown or soft landing of its economy during 2023.
It is predicted that China’s economy will continue to grow steadily in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the nation will have no problem in achieving economic growth of about 5 percent this year, which will even exceed the government’s initial expectations.
The implementation of 25 measures to boost financial support for private firms, including efforts to diversify financial channels for private businesses has further enhanced the capacity and growth of the private sector.
It is confident and capable of achieving long-term stable development, continuously bringing new impetus and opportunities to the world through China’s accelerated development.
The latest US ratings agency Moody’s has reduced its China’s credit outlook from stable to negative. However, it seems that China’s colossal market demand, a complete industrial system with globally complete industrial system, advanced infrastructure, and enhanced supply chain will continue to contribute to economic resilience and digital transformation.
In summary, it seems that Moody’s intentionally hyped the difficulties the national economy faces while undervalued China’s economic resolve, industrial potential and capability of boosting reforms and dealing with any risks. It seems that the US credit rating agency’s move is part of US-led Western campaign bad-mouthing and smearing China’s economy, which will prove to be futile.
Critical analysis confirms that Moody’s rating system has certain miscalculations and limitations, as it basically absences genuine research and in-depth understanding of China’s economic development and governance model.
It translucent that the world’s three largest credit rating agencies including Moody’s, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Group use to be stricter on emerging-market countries, as they tend to get lower ratings even if their debt pressure is lower than that of developed economies.
It is suggested that the Chinese policy makers should continue to implement proactive economic structural reforms and implement fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies and underpin technological innovation in 2024. (The writer is: Executive Director at Center for South & International Studies (CSAIS) Islamabad,
Regional Expert: China, CPEC & BRI)
