For years, the world has viewed the Rohingya crisis as a tragedy contained within the borders of Myanmar — a humanitarian disaster to be managed through refugee camps, aid packages and diplomatic appeals. That illusion no longer holds. The crisis is now spreading beyond Myanmar’s frontiers, threatening to destabilize the wider region, from Bangladesh to Malaysia and Indonesia, while even reshaping the security landscape of the Bay of Bengal.
Recent reports from the UN and independent monitors reveal that, as the fighting between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army intensifies in Rakhine State, thousands of Rohingya civilians have been forced to flee once again. Villages have been razed, security outposts built in their place and entire communities displaced toward the coast. With land routes sealed, many are taking to the sea in rickety boats. The result is a new wave of perilous maritime migration and an emerging transnational crisis.
In Bangladesh, which already shelters nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated dramatically. International funding for the camps has been slashed, food rations have been cut by a third and malnutrition rates among children are soaring. Dhaka, struggling with its own political and economic challenges, has made clear that it cannot absorb another influx. Refugees arriving now are increasingly being detained, pushed back at the border or left stranded in the riverine no-man’s-land between the two countries.
This desperation is fueling the revival of dangerous trafficking networks across the Bay of Bengal. Smugglers are once again ferrying Rohingya toward Malaysia and Indonesia, routes that had been dormant since the 2015 Andaman Sea crisis. In the past six months alone, regional authorities have intercepted hundreds of boats carrying Rohingya families. Dozens have perished at sea. Those who survive often end up detained in immigration facilities or forced into exploitative labor.
In Indonesia’s Aceh province, local communities that once welcomed Rohingya arrivals are now turning them away amid rising economic pressure and misinformation campaigns online. In Malaysia, arrests of undocumented Rohingya have surged. Thailand, long a key transit point, has quietly hardened its maritime patrols, pushing boats back into international waters. The pattern is unmistakable. Regional fatigue has set in and the refugees are being shunted from one jurisdiction to another in a grim geopolitical relay.
What is unfolding is not simply a humanitarian problem but a regional security emergency. Stateless, impoverished and desperate populations on the move offer fertile ground for traffickers, extremist recruiters and organized crime. Intelligence officials in several Southeast Asian capitals privately warn that the renewed chaos in Rakhine could reignite transnational trafficking syndicates that once linked Myanmar, Bangladesh and southern Thailand — networks that profit equally from people, weapons and narcotics. The Bay of Bengal, already a conduit for illicit trade, risks becoming the next maritime flashpoint.
The spillover is also undermining fragile regional relations. Bangladesh has tightened its border patrols and even exchanged fire with Myanmar forces across the Naf River. India, concerned about militant infiltration, has begun deporting Rohingya asylum seekers despite international law. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ attempts at quiet diplomacy have yielded little beyond statements of concern, while the Organization of Islamic Cooperation has been largely absent from practical coordination. In effect, the world’s most persecuted minority has been left to drift between collapsing state systems.
For the Arab world, this should be more than a distant concern. The Rohingya crisis sits at the intersection of moral responsibility and strategic foresight. Gulf states have deep economic ties with Southeast Asia, from migrant labor flows to investments in energy and infrastructure. Instability in the Bay of Bengal threatens key shipping lanes and trade routes that connect the Middle East to East Asia. But beyond strategic interests lies a moral imperative. The Arab and Muslim worlds cannot claim solidarity with oppressed Muslim communities while allowing the Rohingya to vanish from international attention.
What is needed now is a shift in mindset. The Rohingya situation must be treated not as a Myanmar-only problem but as a regional crisis requiring coordinated, multilateral action. That starts with renewed humanitarian support for Bangladesh and other host countries. Arab donors and Gulf humanitarian agencies can play a decisive role here, filling the funding gap that Western governments have allowed to widen. Aid must also extend to coastal rescue operations, antitrafficking efforts and local community support in Indonesia and Malaysia, which are bearing increasing burdens.
Diplomatically, Arab and Muslim nations should leverage their collective influence through the OIC, the UN and bilateral ties with ASEAN members to press for a credible framework for Rohingya repatriation and citizenship. The current pilot plans floated by the Myanmar junta, which would return only a small fraction of refugees without citizenship rights, are a facade. Real repatriation must be voluntary, safe and anchored in international guarantees. The Arab world, drawing on its own experience of mediating in conflict zones, could help craft such a framework in coordination with Bangladesh and the national unity government of Myanmar.
Equally important is the need to sustain attention. The world’s focus has shifted to Ukraine, Gaza and other flashpoints, but the slow disintegration of Myanmar and the cross-border spillover of its refugee crisis carry consequences that will be felt far beyond Southeast Asia. If the international community continues to look away, it risks creating another protracted displacement crisis on par with Syria or Sudan, but this time in a region that lacks the infrastructure to cope.
The Rohingya’s plight is no longer confined to the barbed wire fences of Cox’s Bazar or the charred ruins of Rakhine villages. It now stretches across seas and borders, testing the conscience and coordination of an entire region. The choice before the world, and particularly before Muslim-majority nations, is stark: act collectively now to stabilize the situation or face a humanitarian and security catastrophe that will ripple from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea.
The Rohingya have already lost their homes and their citizenship. If the world continues to treat their tragedy as someone else’s problem, they will soon lose their future as well. ( Courtesy: Arab News ) The author is : Director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim.
Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect WNAM’ point of view
